Managing ecosystems in a sea of uncertainty: invasive species management and assisted colonizations

Managing ecosystems in the face of complex species interactions, and associated uncertainty, presents a considerable ecological challenge. Altering those interactions via actions such as invasive management or conservation translocations can result unintended consequences, supporting need to be able make more informed decisions this uncertainty. We demonstrate utility ecosystem models reduce uncertainty inform future management. use Phillip Island, Australia, case study investigate impacts two options consider whether critically endangered mammal is likely establish population presence species. Qualitative are used determine effects apex predator removal (feral cats) prey (rabbits, rats, mice). extend approach using Ensemble Ecosystem Models how suppression, rather than eradication influences community; an introduction eastern barred bandicoot successful Our analysis revealed potential for outcomes with feral cat control operations, rats rabbits expected increase abundance. A strategy based on managing appeared have most ecosystem-wide benefits, rodent showing favorable responses rabbit strategy. Eastern bandicoots were predicted persist under all levels (including no control). imprecise process. However, qualitative modeling ensemble address capable improving optimizing practices. shows that best may not always top-down predators, land managers should think broadly relation bottom-up processes well. Challenges faced continuing conserve biodiversity mean new, bolder, needed. suggest surviving cats, potentially opening door translocations.